Friday, August 28, 2009

5.5 Reasons That Auguts 2009 is a Bad Time to Invest in Real Estate

I have been avoiding this topic for a long time. After all, this is a blog that supports a company that provides bridge loans to real estate investors and it's in Clear Day Capital's best interest to make sure that people keep investing. But the truth of the matter is that this is a bad time to invest in real estate. Here are the facts:

1. Everyone is getting out of real estate, so you should too. That's right, in a democracy where every vote counts, the majority rules. So as realtors, loan officers, title officers, investors, and everyone else is dropping like flys, you should get out or stay out!

2. Real estate prices are down. You need to wait until prices are up a lot to make sure that you are following the upward trend. Even though property values are low and on sale, wait until prices go up quite a bit. Real estate isn't like stocks or cars or other things that you buy. Buying high is what most people do, so you should follow the majority (see reason #1.)

3. Real estate volume is down even further. Again, if no one is buying, why should you? Whait until volume goes up and it becomes more of a seller's market and then you can feel good about making offers near the asking price. Better yet, you'll be able to make lot's of low-ball offers that get rejected because people have more confidence that they'll be able to sell their house.

4. Unemployment is up. This means that everone has stopped buying houses and no one can afford to pay rent. After all, going from 3.0% unemployment to 5.7% unemployment (in Utah) means that everyone is out of work and no one has a paycheck coming in. We know that the government lies and unemployment MUST be so high that the American way of life has ceased to exist. I am not sure where people are living, but it must not be in houses or apartments. Has anyone checked on RV park occupancy rates lately?

5.5 Home foreclosures are ready for the "second wave." Home prices are going down even further. Forget about buying for cash flow long term, forget about negotiating a good deal now, forget about amortization, forget about owner financing that will allow you to own dozens of houses without qualifying at the bank. Just focus on equity and remember housing prices never bounce back.

5.5 Leave more for me & my friends! This is the best reason of all to stay out of the real estate market. We are having too much fun and I don't want competition for houses to go back up to were it was two years ago!

My suggestion is that you wait for the nightly news to tell you that it's a good time to invest in real estate. They allways seem to have their pulse on the market. Look at the great job of investigative reporting they did to warn us about the housing bubble.

There are lots of other other good reasons to not invest. Can you think of some and share them?


  1. ROFLMAO Dave this is your best article yet !!!!

    I agree all investors should leave Utah Right away !!!!! I just bought a house for $20.00 Yeah that right $20.00 It didnt even have a mortgage on it !!!! Thats right free and clear for $20.00

    Yes it needs a lot of work but their is about $40k profit in it for me and the more of you investors that tuck tail and run out of ogden the easier these deals will be for me to find.

    Mike Waters.

  2. Yes everyone needs to STOP trying to buy in Utah (especially Ogden). There is nothing but pesky cash flow and seller financing... That stuff is WAY to confusing and HARD. Sit back and wait until the top comes again.. And then buy them from me because I will own it all.